Taleb, Nassim Nicholas -- The Black Swan, Part 2, ch. 11 “How to Look for Bird Poop” (2007)

Dave — Mon, 16 Jun 2025 17:16:27 +0000

The same past data can confirm a theory and its exact opposite! If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more likely to be immortal or b) that you are closer to death. Both conclusions rely on the exact same data.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (b. 1960) Lebanese-American essayist, statistician, risk analyst, aphorist
The Black Swan, Part 2, ch. 11 “How to Look for Bird Poop” (2007)
(Source)

Lewis, C.S. -- Essay (1950-10), “Historicism,” The Month, Vol. 4, No. 4 New Series (Vol. 190, No. 998 Old Series)

Dave — Mon, 11 Jan 2021 20:06:12 +0000

There are inquiries in which scanty evidence is worth using. We may not be able to get certainty, but we can get probability, and half a loaf is better than no bread.

C. S. Lewis (1898-1963) English writer, literary scholar, lay theologian [Clive Staples Lewis]
Essay (1950-10), “Historicism,” The Month, Vol. 4, No. 4 New Series (Vol. 190, No. 998 Old Series)
(Source)

Regarding historical inquiry based on incomplete evidence. First collected in Christian Reflections (1967).

See also Howell (1659).

WIST Quotations

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas -- The Black Swan, Part 2, ch. 11 “How to Look for Bird Poop” (2007)

Lewis, C.S. -- Essay (1950-10), “Historicism,” The Month, Vol. 4, No. 4 New Series (Vol. 190, No. 998 Old Series)