No, no: I never guess. It is a shocking habit, — destructive to the logical faculty.
Arthur Conan Doyle (1859-1930) British writer and physician
Story (1890-02), “The Sign of the Four,” ch. 1 [Holmes], Lippincott’s Monthly Magazine, Vol. 45 (US) / 1 (UK)
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The original publication, and Doyle's manuscript (along with many other iterations across media) use "The Sign of the Four" as the title, while others (including the first book publications) use "The Sign of Four." The five-word form is used most commonly in the story, but the four-word form does show up. (More info.)
Published in novel form as The Sign of Four (1890-10).
Quotations about:
guess
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An economist is a man that can tell you anything about — he’ll tell you what can happen under any given conditions, and his guess is liable to be just as good as anybody else’s, too.
So we have to make guesses in order to give any utility at all to science. In order to avoid simply describing experiments that have been done, we have to propose laws beyond their observed range. There is nothing wrong with that, despite the fact that it makes science uncertain. If you thought before that science was certain — well, that is just an error on your part.
Richard Feynman (1918-1988) American physicist
The Character of Physical Law, ch. 3 “The Great Conservation Principles” (1965)
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The inexperienced, and crackpots, and people like that, make guesses that are simple, but you can immediately see that they are wrong, so that does not count. Others, the inexperienced students, make guesses that are very complicated, and it sort of looks as if it is all right, but I know it is not true because the truth always turns out to be simpler than you thought.
Richard Feynman (1918-1988) American physicist
The Character of Physical Law, ch 7 “Seeking New Laws” (1965)
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