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Men should not be too smug in their own reason;
only a foolish man will walk his field
and count his ears too early in the season;
for I have seen a briar through winter’s snows
rattle its tough and menacing bare stems,
and then, in season, open its pale rose.
and I have seen a ship cross all the main,
true to its course and swift, and then go down
just as it entered its home port again.

[Non sien le genti, ancor, troppo sicure
a giudicar, sì come quei che stima
le biade in campo pria che sien mature;
ch’i’ ho veduto tutto ’l verno prima
lo prun mostrarsi rigido e feroce,
poscia portar la rosa in su la cima;
e legno vidi già dritto e veloce
correr lo mar per tutto suo cammino,
perire al fine a l’intrar de la foce.]

Dante Alighieri the poet
Dante Alighieri (1265-1321) Italian poet
The Divine Comedy [Divina Commedia], Book 3 “Paradiso,” Canto 13, l. 130ff (13.130-138) [Thomas Aquinas] (1320) [tr. Ciardi (1970)]
    (Source)

(Source (Italian)). Alternate translations:

Let none presume to fix his final state,
Or on such awful question hold debate;
Oft have I seen the vernal stem beguile
The reaper's hand: and oft the rigid thorn,
That to the blast of winter waves forlorn,
In June with rosy wreath is seen to smile.
Oft-times the bark that feuds with prosp'rous gale
Thro' the dividing waves with flowing sail.
Yet sinks in view of port, the pious man
May fail.
[tr. Boyd (1802), st. 23-24]

Let not the people be too swift to judge,
As one who reckons on the blades in field,
Or ere the crop be ripe. For I have seen
The thorn frown rudely all the winter long
And after bear the rose upon its top;
And bark, that all the way across the sea
Ran straight and speedy, perish at the last,
E’en in the haven’s mouth.
[tr. Cary (1814)]

Let not the people be too swift to judge,
Like one who looks upon the springing blade,
As if the harvest were already made.
For I have seen, the whole of winter long,
The thorn look rude and rough, and bare at top,
And after show the rose's reddening cup;
And seen the bark, already swift direct
Across the sea, in all its journey's way,
Perish at last when entering in the bay.
[tr. Bannerman (1850)]

Nor yet shall people be too confident
In judging, even as he is who doth count
The corn in field or ever it be ripe.
For I have seen all winter long the thorn
First show itself intractable and fierce,
And after bear the rose upon its top;
And I have seen a ship direct and swift
Run o'er the sea throughout its course entire,
To perish at the harbour's mouth at last.
[tr. Longfellow (1867)]

Let not the folk be yet too secure at judging, like him who values the corn in a field before it is ripe; for I have seen all winter long the plum-tree at first show itself rigid and stern, and afterward bear blossoms on its top ; and I saw on a time a craft trim and swift to sail the sea for its whole course, perish at the last in the entering of the sound.
[tr. Butler (1885)]

Let not the people think themselves elected
To judge like one who counteth on the corn
Within his field ere it be ripe.
Dejected I have beheld through winter time a thorn
Its rude repelling aspect show, and bear
After a rose, upon its top forlorn.
And I have seen a vessel swiftly steer
Through all its voyage across the ocean stream.
Perish at last, the harbour's entrance near.
[tr. Minchin (1885)]

Let not the people still be too secure in judgment, like him who reckons up the blades in the field ere they are ripe. For I have seen the briar first show itself stiff and wild all winter long, then bear the rose upon its top. And I have seen a bark ere now ran straight and swift across the sea through all its course, to perish at last at entrance of the harbor.
[tr. Norton (1892)]

Let not folk yet be too secure in judgment, as who should count the ears upon the field ere they be ripe;
for I have seen first all the winter through the thorn display itself hard and forbidding and then upon its summit bear the rose;
and I have seen ere now a ship fare straight and swift over the sea through her entire course, and perish at the last, entering the harbour mouth.
[tr. Wicksteed (1899)]

So also let not the people be too sure in judging, like those that reckon the corn in the field before it is ripe. For I have seen the briar first show harsh and rigid all through the winter and later bear the rose upon its top, and once I saw a ship that ran straight and swift over the sea through all its course perish at the last entering the harbour.
[tr. Sinclair (1939)]

Let not the people be too self-assured
In judging early, as who should count the rows
Of green blades in the field ere they matured.
For I have seen how first the wild-brier shows
Her sprays, all winter through, thorny and stark,
And then upon the topmost bears the rose;
And I have seen ere now a speeding barque
Run all her sea-course with unswerving stem
And close on harbour go down to the dark.
[tr. Binyon (1943)]

No one should ever be too self-assured
In judgement, like a farmer reckoning
His gains before the corn-crop is matured,
For I have seen the briar, a prickly thing
And tough the winter through, and on its tip
Bearing the very rose at close of spring;
And once I saw, her whole long ocean trip
Safe-done, a vessel wrecked upon the bar,
And down she went, that swift and stately ship.
[tr. Sayers/Reynolds (1962)]

Moreover, let not folk be too secure in judgment, like one who should count the ears in the field before they are ripe; for I have seen first, all winter through, the thorn display itself hard and stiff, and then upon its summit bear the rose. And I have seen ere now a ship fare straight and swift over the sea through all her course, and perish at the last as she entered the harbor.
[tr. Singleton (1975)]

Let people not be too sure of themselves
And their judgement, like someone who reckons
The field of corn before the ears are ripe:
For I have seen all the winter through
The thorn first show itself unyielding, wild,
And after all carry a rose on top;
And I have seen a ship sail straight and swiftly
Over the sea for the whole of its voyage
Yet perish at last at the harbour mouth.
[tr. Sisson (1981)]

So too, let men not be too confident
in judging -- witness those who, in the field,
would count the ears before the corn is ripe;
for I have seen, all winter through, the brier
display itself a stiff and obstinate,
and later, on its summit, bear the rose;
and once I saw a ship sail straight and swift
through all its voyaging across the sea,
then perish at the end, at harbor entry.
[tr. Mandelbaum (1984)]

Nor should one be too quick to trust his judgment;
be not like him who walks his field and counts
the ears of corn before the time is ripe,
for I have seen brier all winter long
showing its rough and prickly stem, and then
eventually produce a lovely rose,
and I have seen a ship sail straight and swift
over the sea through all its course, and then
about to enter in the harbor, sink.
[tr. Musa (1984)]

And let not people be too sure to judge, like one who appraises the oats in the field before they are ripe:
for I have seen all the previous winter long the thornbush appear rigid and and fierce, but later bear the rose upon its tip,
and I have seen a ship run straight and swift across the sea for all in its course, only to perish at last when entering the port.
[tr. Durling (2011)]

Do not let people be too secure in their judgements, like those who count the ears of corn in the field before the crop ripens, since I have seen, all winter long, the thorn display itself, sharp and forbidding, and then on its summit bear the rose; and before now I have seen a ship run straight and sure over the sea for her entire course, and sink in the end, entering the harbour mouth.
[tr. Kline (2002)]

And then again, don't let folk be too sure
in passing judgement as do those who price
the harvest in the field before it's ripe.
For I have seen, at first, all winter through
a thorn bush shows itself as stark and fierce,
which after bears a rose upon its height.
And I have seen a keel, steered swift and well,
speed over oceans all its voyage through,
then perish at the entrance to the dock.
[tr. Kirkpatrick (2007)]

Let the people, then, not be too certain
in their judgments, like those that harvest in their minds
corn still in the field before it ripens.
For I have seen the briar first look dry and thorny
right through all the winter's cold,
then later wear the bloom of roses at its tip,
and once I saw a ship, which had sailed straight
and swift upon the sea through all its voyage,
sinking at the end as it made its way to port.
[tr. Hollander/Hollander (2007)]

But ordinary people, too, must guard
Their judgment, not like those who count up ears
Of corn before the field is ripe. For I
Have seen, all winter through, bushes of thorn
Covered with small but savage knives, hard
And fierce, but now comes summer, and they they're roses
All over. And I have seen a ship sail far,
Straight and swift, and on course, but once in the harbor
Down she goes, sinking like a stone.
[tr. Raffel (2010)]

 
Added on 26-Aug-24 | Last updated 26-Aug-24
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More quotes by Dante Alighieri

BANQUO: If you can look into the seeds of time
And say which grain will grow and which will not,
Speak, then, to me, who neither beg nor fear
Your favors nor your hate.

Shakespeare
William Shakespeare (1564-1616) English dramatist and poet
Macbeth, Act 1, sc. 3, l. 61ff (1.3.61-64) (1606)
    (Source)

To the Witches (Weïrd Sisters).
 
Added on 29-Jul-24 | Last updated 29-Jul-24
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When we look forward and try to project what may come out of a development, we are always wrong, because the by-products sometimes become far more important than the primary thing you started out to accomplish. Nevertheless, unintelligent motion is a great deal more important in research than intelligent standing still.

Charles F. Kettering (1876-1958) American inventor, engineer, researcher, businessman
“250 at Luncheon Honor Kettering,” New York Times (1936-11-11)
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Added on 1-Mar-24 | Last updated 29-Feb-24
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There ain’t nobody on earth, I don’t care how smart they are, ever going to make me believe they will ever stop wars.

Will Rogers (1879-1935) American humorist
Column (1923-07-22), “Weekly Article”
    (Source)
 
Added on 3-Aug-23 | Last updated 21-Jun-24
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An economist is a man that can tell you anything about — he’ll tell you what can happen under any given conditions, and his guess is liable to be just as good as anybody else’s, too.

Will Rogers (1879-1935) American humorist
Radio broadcast (1935-05-26)
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Added on 20-Jul-23 | Last updated 5-Jun-24
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People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in ten.

Bill Gates
Bill Gates (b. 1955) American software magnate [William Henry Gates III]
The Road Ahead, “Afterword” (1996 ed.)
    (Source)

First use of this specific formulation, but similar phrases can be traced back to the 1960s. More discussion of variations on this theme: People Tend To Overestimate What Can Be Done In One Year And To Underestimate What Can Be Done In Five Or Ten Years – Quote Investigator®.
 
Added on 31-Jan-23 | Last updated 31-Jan-23
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Expectations are resentments waiting to happen.

Anne Lamott (b. 1954) American novelist and non-fiction writer
Crooked Little Heart, ch. 4 (1997)
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Added on 7-Dec-22 | Last updated 7-Dec-22
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If you make a great number of predictions, the ones that were wrong will soon be forgotten, and the ones that turn out to be true will make you famous.

Malcolm Gladwell
Malcolm Gladwell (b. 1963) Anglo-Canadian journalist, author, public speaker
“Dangerous Minds: Criminal Profiling Made Easy,” The New Yorker (12 Nov 2007)
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Added on 15-Nov-22 | Last updated 14-Nov-22
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NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING. Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess — and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.

William Goldman (1931-2018) American screenwriter, novelist
Adventures in the Screen Trade, ch. 1 (1983)
    (Source)
 
Added on 25-May-21 | Last updated 25-May-21
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Nothing predicts future behavior as much as past impunity.

Darius Rejali (b. c. 1959) Iranian-American academic, political scientist
In Jane Mayer, “Torture and the Truth,” New Yorker (14 Dec 2014)
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Added on 3-May-21 | Last updated 3-May-21
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Perhaps if we saw what was ahead of us, and glimpsed the crimes, follies, and misfortunes that would befall us later on, we would all stay in our mother’s wombs, and there would be nobody in the world but a great number of very fat, very irritated women.

Lemony Snicket (b. 1970) American author, screenwriter, musician (pseud. for Daniel Handler)
The End (2006)
 
Added on 7-Apr-21 | Last updated 19-Apr-21
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I do so wish sometimes, that I could just pop home for an hour or two as easily in the flesh as in the spirit. No doubt the explorers of 2015, if there is anything left to explore, will not only carry their pocket wireless telephones fitted with wireless telescopes but will also receive their nourishment and warmth by wireless means & also their power to drive their motor sledges, but, of course, there will be an aerial daily excursion to both Poles then & it will be the bottom of the Atlantic, if not the centre of the earth, that will form the goal in those days.

Thomas Orde-Lees (1877-1948) British naval officer, arctic explorer, mountaineer, writer
Diary, aboard HMS Endurance (1915-01-10)

Written while the ship was trapped in the ice during Ernest Shackleton's ill-fated Imperial Trans-Antarctic Expedition. Some versions of the quotation refer to "2012," rather than 2015.

While the reference to "pocket wireless telephones" makes this quotation suspect, Orde-Lees has extensive diary material published, and this appears to be genuine.
 
Added on 13-Oct-20 | Last updated 27-Mar-23
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After titanic studies he was satisfied that a thorough knowledge of the past could lead a profound scholar to predict the future course of history with greater accuracy, provided that it did not turn out quite differently.

Aubrey Menen (1912-1989) British writer, novelist, satirist, theatre critic
The Ramayana (1954)
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Added on 9-Sep-20 | Last updated 10-Sep-20
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Intelligence recognizes what has happened. Genius recognizes what will happen.

John Ciardi (1916-1986) American poet, writer, critic
(Attributed)
 
Added on 10-Jun-20 | Last updated 10-Jun-20
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Men of all degrees should form this prudent habit:
Never serve a rabbit stew before you catch the rabbit.

James Thurber (1894-1961) American cartoonist and writer
“Ivory, Apes, and People,” Further Fables for Our Time (1956)
 
Added on 24-Apr-20 | Last updated 24-Apr-20
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Prudent men are in the habit of saying — and not by chance or without basis — that he who wishes to see what is to come should observe what has already happened, because all the affairs of the world, in every age, have their individual counterparts in ancient times. The reason for this is that since they are carried on by men, who have and always have had the same passions, of necessity the same results appear.

Niccolò Machiavelli (1469-1527) Italian politician, philosopher, political scientist
The Discourses on Livy, Book 3, ch. 43 (1517) [tr. Gilbert (1958)]
    (Source)

Alt. trans.: "The wise are wont to say, and not without reason or at random, that he who would forecast what is about to happen should look to what has been; since all human events, whether present or to come, have their exact counterpart in the past. And this, because these events are brought about by men, whose passions and dispositions remaining in all ages the same naturally give rise to the same effects." [tr. Thomson]
 
Added on 27-Jan-20 | Last updated 27-Jan-20
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The future always arrives too fast — and in the wrong order.

Alvin Toffler (1928-2016) American writer and futurist
(Attributed)
 
Added on 24-Jan-20 | Last updated 24-Jan-20
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‘Tis not, believe me, a wise man’s part to say, “I will live.” Tomorrow’s life is too late: live today.

[Non est, crede mihi, sapientis dicere “Vivam”:
Sera nimis vita est crastina: vive hodie.]

Marcus Valerius Martial
Martial (AD c.39-c.103) Spanish Roman poet, satirist, epigrammatist [Marcus Valerius Martialis]
Epigrams [Epigrammata], Book 1, epigram 15 (1.15.11-12) (AD 85-86) [tr. Bohn’s (1859)]
    (Source)

A sentiment echoed in 5.58. (Source (Latin)). Alternate translations:

Trust me, it is not wise to say,
I'll live; 'twill be too late tomorrow,
Live if thou'rt wise today.
[tr. Oldmixon (1728)]

"I'll live tomorrow," will a wise man say?
Tomorrow is too late, then live today.
[tr. Hay (1755), quoted in Bohn's, but not in Hay's own book]

Tomorrow I shall live, the fool will say. [...]
Wouldst thou be sure of living? Live today.
[tr. Elphinston (1782), Book 2, ep. 45]

No wisdom 'tis to say "I'll soon begin to live."
'Tis late to live tomorrow; live today.
[ed. Harbottle (1897)]

It sorts not, believe me, with wisdom to say "I shall live."
Too late is tomorrow's life; live thou today.
[tr. Ker (1919)]

"I'll live tomorrow," no wise man will say;
Tomorrow is too late. Then live today.
[tr. Francis & Tatum (1924), #10]

To say, "I mean to live," is folly's place:
Tomorrow's life comes late; live, then, today.
[tr. Duff (1929)]

It's not a wise man's part to say
"I'll live," Tomorrow's life is much to late.
Live! Today.
[tr. Bovie (1970)]

Believe me, the wise man does not say "1 shall live." Tomorrow's life is too late. Live today.
[tr. Shackleton Bailey (1993)]

No sage will e'er "I'll live tomorrow" say:
Tomorrow is too late: live thou today.
[tr. WSB]

 
Added on 16-Aug-17 | Last updated 27-Nov-23
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How many things have been denied one day, only to become realities the next!

Jules Verne (1828-1905) French novelist, poet, playwright
From the Earth to the Moon (1865)
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Added on 12-Aug-16 | Last updated 12-Aug-16
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Yes, but water decomposed into its primitive elements … and decomposed doubtless, by electricity, which will then have become a powerful and manageable force, for all great discoveries, by some inexplicable law, appear to agree and become complete at the same time. Yes, my friends, I believe that water will one day be employed as fuel, that hydrogen and oxygen which constitute it, used singly or together, will furnish an inexhaustible source of heat and light, of an intensity of which coal is not capable. Some day the coalrooms of steamers and the tenders of locomotives will, instead of coal, be stored with these two condensed gases, which will burn in the furnaces with enormous calorific power. There is, therefore, nothing to fear. As long as the earth is inhabited it will supply the wants of its inhabitants, and there will be no want of either light or heat as long as the productions of the vegetable, mineral or animal kingdoms do not fail us. I believe, then, that when the deposits of coal are exhausted we shall heat and warm ourselves with water. Water will be the coal of the future!

Jules Verne (1828-1905) French novelist, poet, playwright
The Mysterious Island, Part 2, ch. 11 (1874)
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Added on 6-May-16 | Last updated 6-May-16
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Solutions nearly always come from the direction you least expect, which means there’s no point trying to look in that direction because it won’t be coming from there.

Douglas Adams (1952-2001) English writer
The Salmon of Doubt (2002)
 
Added on 29-Jun-15 | Last updated 24-Jun-15
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We know nothing of what will happen in future, but by the analogy of experience.

Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865) American lawyer, politician, US President (1861-65)
Speech on the Sub-Treasury (26 Dec 1839)
 
Added on 24-Apr-15 | Last updated 24-Apr-15
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Economists are very good at saying that something cannot go on forever, but not so good at saying when it will stop.

Herb Stein (1916-1999) American economist
(Attributed)
 
Added on 27-Mar-15 | Last updated 27-Mar-15
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We have two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know and those who know they don’t know.

John Kenneth Galbraith (1908-2006) Canadian-American economist, diplomat, author
(Attributed)

Variants:
  • There are two classes of people who tell what is going to happen in the future: Those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.
  • You can divide the world into those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know.
  • There are those who don't know, and there are those who don't know they don't know.
  • We have two kinds of forecasters: Those who don't know ... and those who don't know they don't know.
  • There are two kinds of economists: those who don't know the future, and those who don't know they don't know.
 
Added on 12-Mar-15 | Last updated 12-Mar-15
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You have no lease of your lives, and death is not bound to give you warning before it gives you that deadly blow that will send you to everlasting misery or everlasting felicity.

Thomas Brooks (1608-1680) English Puritan divine, writer
The Hypocrite Detected, Anatomized (1650)
 
Added on 31-Dec-14 | Last updated 31-Dec-14
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Science is as yet in its infancy, and we can foretell little of the future save that the thing that has not been is the thing that shall be; that no beliefs, no values, no institutions are safe. So far from being an isolated phenomenon the late war is only an example of the disruptive result that we may constantly expect from the progress of science. The future will be no primrose path. It will have its own problems. Some will be the secular problems of the past, giant flowers of evil blossoming at last to their own destruction. Others will be wholly new. Whether in the end man will survive his ascensions of power we cannot tell. But the problem is no new one. It is the old paradox of freedom re-enacted with mankind for actor and the earth for stage.

J.B.S. Haldane (1892-1964) English geneticist [John Burden Sanderson Haldane]
“Daedalus, or Science and the Future,” speech, Cambridge (24 Feb 1923)
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Added on 5-Dec-14 | Last updated 5-Dec-14
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You can’t build a reputation on what you are going to do.

Henry Ford (1863-1947) American industrialist
(Attributed)
 
Added on 24-Jul-13 | Last updated 17-Jun-16
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Power-worship blurs political judgment because it leads almost unavoidably to the belief that present trends will continue. Whoever is winning at the moment will always seem invincible.

George Orwell (1903-1950) English writer [pseud. of Eric Arthur Blair]
“James Burnham and the Managerial Revolution” (May 1946)
 
Added on 24-Sep-12 | Last updated 24-Jan-17
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Forecast: To observe that which has passed, and guess it will happen again; to anticipate the future by guessing at the past; to predict that an event will happen, if it does, by basing calculations on events that have already happened, if they did.

Elbert Hubbard (1856-1915) American writer, businessman, philosopher
The Roycroft Dictionary (1914)
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Added on 18-Apr-12 | Last updated 14-Sep-20
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Deserves death! I daresay he does. Many that live deserve death. And some die that deserve life. Can you give that to them? Then be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety. Even the wise cannot see all ends.

J.R.R. Tolkien (1892-1973) English writer, fabulist, philologist, academic [John Ronald Reuel Tolkien]
The Lord of the Rings, Vol. 2: The Two Towers, Book 4, ch. 1 “The Taming of Sméagol” (1954)
    (Source)

Frodo recalling the words of Gandalf (approximately) in The Fellowship of the Ring.
 
Added on 26-Jul-11 | Last updated 23-Feb-23
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The tactical result of an engagement forms the base for new strategic decisions because victory or defeat in a battle changes the situation to such a degree that no human acumen is able to see beyond the first battle. In this sense one should understand Napoleon’s saying: “I have never had a plan of operations.” Therefore no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force.

Helmuth von Moltke (1800-1891) Prussian soldier
“On Strategy” (1871)

Translated in Daniel J. Hughes, Harry Bell, Moltke on the Art of War: Selected Writings (1993).

Paraphrases / variants:
  • "No plan survives contact with the enemy."
  • "No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy."
 
Added on 15-Jan-10 | Last updated 20-Dec-19
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I have complete faith in the continued absurdity of whatever’s going on.

Jon Stewart (b. 1962) American satirist, comedian, and television host. [b. Jonathan Stuart Leibowitz]
Interview, Philadelphia Inquirer (2007-04-22)
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Added on 26-Aug-09 | Last updated 24-Oct-23
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But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again.

John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) English economist
A Tract on Monetary Reform, ch. 3 (1923)
    (Source)
 
Added on 1-Oct-07 | Last updated 4-Jun-20
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Deserves it! I daresay he does. Many that live deserve death. And some that die deserve life. Can you give it to them? then do not be too eager to deal out death in judgment. For even the very wise cannot see all ends.

J.R.R. Tolkien (1892-1973) English writer, fabulist, philologist, academic [John Ronald Reuel Tolkien]
The Lord of the Rings, Vol. 1: The Fellowship of the Ring, Book 1, ch. 2 “The Shadow of the Past” [Gandalf] (1954)
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Frodo later recounts these words (approximately) to Sam in The Two Towers.
 
Added on 1-Feb-04 | Last updated 29-Sep-22
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An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.

Lawrence J Peter
Lawrence J. Peter (1919-1990) American educator, management theorist
(Attributed)
 
Added on 1-Feb-04 | Last updated 3-Apr-20
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