Don’t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (b. 1960) Lebanese-American essayist, statistician, risk analyst, aphorist
The Black Swan, Part 2, ch. 10 “The Scandal of Prediction” (2007)
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Quotations about:
assumptions
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Bean longed to be able to talk these things over with someone — with Nikolai, or even with one of the teachers. It slowed him down to have his own thoughts move around in circles — without outside stimulation it was hard to break free of his own assumptions. One mind can think only of its own questions; it rarely surprises itself.
When the map does not correspond to the territory, there is a certain category of fool — the overeducated, the academic, the journalist, the newspaper reader, the mechanistic “scientist”, the pseudo-empiricist, those endowed with what I call “epistemic arrogance”, this wonderful ability to discount what they did not see, the unobserved — who enter a state of denial, imagining the territory as fitting the map.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (b. 1960) Lebanese-American essayist, statistician, risk analyst, aphorist
The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms, “Postface” (2010)
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When you’re surrounded by people who share the same set of assumptions as you, you start to think that’s reality.
Emily Levine (1944-2019) American humorist, writer, actress, speaker
“A Theory of Everything,” TED Talk, Monterey, California (Feb 2002)
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Man lives, not directly or nakedly in nature like the animals, but within a mythological universe, a body of assumptions and beliefs developed from his existential concerns.
Northrop Frye (1912-1991) Canadian literary critic and literary theorist
The Great Code: The Bible and Literature, Introduction (1982)
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Assumptions are the termites of relationships.
Henry Winkler (b. 1945) American actor, director, producer, author
Commencement Address, Emerson College (1995)
To spell out the obvious is often to call it into question.
Eric Hoffer (1902-1983) American writer, philosopher, longshoreman
Passionate State of Mind, Aphorism 220 (1955)
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The judgments which Johnson passed on books were, in his own time, regarded with superstitious veneration, and, in our time, are generally treated with indiscriminate contempt. They are the judgments of a strong but enslaved understanding. The mind of the critic was hedged round by an uninterrupted fence of prejudices and superstitions. Within his narrow limits, he displayed a vigour and an activity which ought to have enabled him to clear the barrier that confined him. How it chanced that a man who reasoned on his premises so ably, should assume his premises so foolishly, is one of the great mysteries of human nature.
Thomas Babington Macaulay (1800-1859) English writer and politician
“Samuel Johnson,” The Edinburgh Review (Sep 1831)
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Review of John Croker's 1831 edition of James Boswell, The Life of Samuel Johnson.
The history of Western science confirms the aphorism that the great menace to progress is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge.
Daniel J. Boorstin (1914-2004) American historian, professor, attorney, writer
Speech (1992-08-31), “Realms of Discovery, Old and New,” World Space Congress, Washington, D.C.
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Collected in his Cleopatra's Nose: Essays on the Unexpected, Part 1, ch. 1 "The Age of Negative Discovery" (1995).
In Carol Krucoff, "The 6 O'Clock Scholar," Washington Post (1984-01-29), he is quoted:The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance -- it is the illusion of knowledge.
See Billings (1874).
To doubt one’s own first principles is the mark of a civilized man. Don’t defend past actions; what is right today may be wrong tomorrow. Don’t be consistent; consistency is the refuge of fools.
Hyman Rickover (1900-1986) Polish-American naval engineer, admiral [b. Chaim Gdala Rykower]
Speech (1954-03-16), “Administering a Large Military Development Project,” US Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
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What a man believes may be ascertained, not from his creed, but from the assumptions on which habitually acts.
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950) Irish playwright and critic
Man and Superman, “The Revolutionist’s Handbook,” “Religion” (1903)
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I have learned throughout my life as a composer chiefly through my mistakes and pursuits of false assumptions, not by my exposure to founts of wisdom and knowledge.
