Quotations about:
    improbability


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There are cases in which the greatest daring is the greatest wisdom.

[Es giebt Fälle, wo das höchste Wagen die höchste Weisheit ist.]

Karl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) Prussian soldier, historian, military theorist
On War [Vom Kriege], Book 2, ch. 5 “Critical Analysis [Kritik]” (2.5) (1832) [tr. Graham (1873)]
    (Source)

Jolles (1943) translates this passage the same as Graham. (Source (German)). Alternate translation:

There are times when the utmost daring is the height of wisdom.
[tr. Howard & Paret (1976)]

 
Added on 4-Aug-22 | Last updated 28-Mar-23
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And this actually makes sense, in the way Agathon puts it: “As you might expect, many improbable things do happen.”

[ἔστιν δὲ τοῦτο καὶ εἰκὸς ὥσπερ Ἀγάθων λέγει, εἰκὸς γὰρ γίνεσθαι πολλὰ καὶ παρὰ τὸ εἰκός.]

Aristotle (384-322 BC) Greek philosopher
Poetics [Περὶ ποιητικῆς, De Poetica], ch. 18 / 1456a (c. 335 BC) [tr. Whalley (1997)]
    (Source)

Original Greek. Alternate translations:

Such an event is probable in Agathon’s sense of the word: "It is probable," he says, "that many things should happen contrary to probability."
[tr. Butcher (1895)]

This is probable, however, only in Agathon's sense, when he speaks of the probability of even improbabilities coming to pass.
[tr. Bywater (1909)]

And there is a probability about such a results, for, as Agathon says, the improbable has a tendency to occur.
[tr. Margoliouth (1911)]

And this, as Agathon says, is a likely result, since it is likely that many quite unlikely things should happen.
[tr. Fyfe (1932)]

This is even probable, as Agathon says; for it is probable that many things will happen even against probability.
[tr. Janko (1987), sec. 4.3.7]

And this actually makes sense, in the way Agathon puts it: "As you might expect, many improbable things do happen."
[tr. Whalley (1997)]

And this is even likely in the sense in which Agathon speaks of it, since it is likely that many things happen contrary to what is likely.
[tr. Sachs (2006)]

This is not improbable, since, as Agathon remarks, it is probable that many improbable things should happen.
[tr. Kenny (2013)]

 
Added on 17-Sep-08 | Last updated 10-May-21
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How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?

Arthur Conan Doyle (1859-1930) British writer and physician
Story (1890-02), “The Sign of the Four,” ch. 6 [Holmes], Lippincott’s Monthly Magazine, Vol. 45 (US) / 1 (UK)
    (Source)

The first appearance of the phrase in its most quoted form. However, earlier in the story, chapter 1, Holmes tells Watson:

Eliminate all other factors, and the one which remains must be the truth.
 

Similar expressions occur in The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes ("The Adventure of the Beryl Coronet"), The Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes ("Silver Blaze"), The Return of Sherlock Holmes ("The Adventure of the Priory School"), His Last Bow ("The Adventure of the Bruce-Partington Plans"), and The Case-Book of Sherlock Holmes ("The Adventure of the Blanched Soldier").

The original publication, and Doyle's manuscript (along with many other iterations across media) use "The Sign of the Four" as the title, while others (including the first book publications) use "The Sign of Four." The five-word form is used most commonly in the story, but the four-word form does show up. (More info.)

Published in novel form as The Sign of Four (1890-10).

 
Added on 1-Feb-04 | Last updated 9-Apr-26
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