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Men should not be too smug in their own reason;
only a foolish man will walk his field
and count his ears too early in the season;
for I have seen a briar through winter’s snows
rattle its tough and menacing bare stems,
and then, in season, open its pale rose.
and I have seen a ship cross all the main,
true to its course and swift, and then go down
just as it entered its home port again.

[Non sien le genti, ancor, troppo sicure
a giudicar, sì come quei che stima
le biade in campo pria che sien mature;
ch’i’ ho veduto tutto ’l verno prima
lo prun mostrarsi rigido e feroce,
poscia portar la rosa in su la cima;
e legno vidi già dritto e veloce
correr lo mar per tutto suo cammino,
perire al fine a l’intrar de la foce.]

Dante Alighieri the poet
Dante Alighieri (1265-1321) Italian poet
The Divine Comedy [Divina Commedia], Book 3 “Paradiso,” Canto 13, l. 130ff (13.130-138) [Thomas Aquinas] (1320) [tr. Ciardi (1970)]
    (Source)

(Source (Italian)). Alternate translations:

Let none presume to fix his final state,
Or on such awful question hold debate;
Oft have I seen the vernal stem beguile
The reaper's hand: and oft the rigid thorn,
That to the blast of winter waves forlorn,
In June with rosy wreath is seen to smile.
Oft-times the bark that feuds with prosp'rous gale
Thro' the dividing waves with flowing sail.
Yet sinks in view of port, the pious man
May fail.
[tr. Boyd (1802), st. 23-24]

Let not the people be too swift to judge,
As one who reckons on the blades in field,
Or ere the crop be ripe. For I have seen
The thorn frown rudely all the winter long
And after bear the rose upon its top;
And bark, that all the way across the sea
Ran straight and speedy, perish at the last,
E’en in the haven’s mouth.
[tr. Cary (1814)]

Let not the people be too swift to judge,
Like one who looks upon the springing blade,
As if the harvest were already made.
For I have seen, the whole of winter long,
The thorn look rude and rough, and bare at top,
And after show the rose's reddening cup;
And seen the bark, already swift direct
Across the sea, in all its journey's way,
Perish at last when entering in the bay.
[tr. Bannerman (1850)]

Nor yet shall people be too confident
In judging, even as he is who doth count
The corn in field or ever it be ripe.
For I have seen all winter long the thorn
First show itself intractable and fierce,
And after bear the rose upon its top;
And I have seen a ship direct and swift
Run o'er the sea throughout its course entire,
To perish at the harbour's mouth at last.
[tr. Longfellow (1867)]

Let not the folk be yet too secure at judging, like him who values the corn in a field before it is ripe; for I have seen all winter long the plum-tree at first show itself rigid and stern, and afterward bear blossoms on its top ; and I saw on a time a craft trim and swift to sail the sea for its whole course, perish at the last in the entering of the sound.
[tr. Butler (1885)]

Let not the people think themselves elected
To judge like one who counteth on the corn
Within his field ere it be ripe.
Dejected I have beheld through winter time a thorn
Its rude repelling aspect show, and bear
After a rose, upon its top forlorn.
And I have seen a vessel swiftly steer
Through all its voyage across the ocean stream.
Perish at last, the harbour's entrance near.
[tr. Minchin (1885)]

Let not the people still be too secure in judgment, like him who reckons up the blades in the field ere they are ripe. For I have seen the briar first show itself stiff and wild all winter long, then bear the rose upon its top. And I have seen a bark ere now ran straight and swift across the sea through all its course, to perish at last at entrance of the harbor.
[tr. Norton (1892)]

Let not folk yet be too secure in judgment, as who should count the ears upon the field ere they be ripe;
for I have seen first all the winter through the thorn display itself hard and forbidding and then upon its summit bear the rose;
and I have seen ere now a ship fare straight and swift over the sea through her entire course, and perish at the last, entering the harbour mouth.
[tr. Wicksteed (1899)]

So also let not the people be too sure in judging, like those that reckon the corn in the field before it is ripe. For I have seen the briar first show harsh and rigid all through the winter and later bear the rose upon its top, and once I saw a ship that ran straight and swift over the sea through all its course perish at the last entering the harbour.
[tr. Sinclair (1939)]

Let not the people be too self-assured
In judging early, as who should count the rows
Of green blades in the field ere they matured.
For I have seen how first the wild-brier shows
Her sprays, all winter through, thorny and stark,
And then upon the topmost bears the rose;
And I have seen ere now a speeding barque
Run all her sea-course with unswerving stem
And close on harbour go down to the dark.
[tr. Binyon (1943)]

No one should ever be too self-assured
In judgement, like a farmer reckoning
His gains before the corn-crop is matured,
For I have seen the briar, a prickly thing
And tough the winter through, and on its tip
Bearing the very rose at close of spring;
And once I saw, her whole long ocean trip
Safe-done, a vessel wrecked upon the bar,
And down she went, that swift and stately ship.
[tr. Sayers/Reynolds (1962)]

Moreover, let not folk be too secure in judgment, like one who should count the ears in the field before they are ripe; for I have seen first, all winter through, the thorn display itself hard and stiff, and then upon its summit bear the rose. And I have seen ere now a ship fare straight and swift over the sea through all her course, and perish at the last as she entered the harbor.
[tr. Singleton (1975)]

Let people not be too sure of themselves
And their judgement, like someone who reckons
The field of corn before the ears are ripe:
For I have seen all the winter through
The thorn first show itself unyielding, wild,
And after all carry a rose on top;
And I have seen a ship sail straight and swiftly
Over the sea for the whole of its voyage
Yet perish at last at the harbour mouth.
[tr. Sisson (1981)]

So too, let men not be too confident
in judging -- witness those who, in the field,
would count the ears before the corn is ripe;
for I have seen, all winter through, the brier
display itself a stiff and obstinate,
and later, on its summit, bear the rose;
and once I saw a ship sail straight and swift
through all its voyaging across the sea,
then perish at the end, at harbor entry.
[tr. Mandelbaum (1984)]

Nor should one be too quick to trust his judgment;
be not like him who walks his field and counts
the ears of corn before the time is ripe,
for I have seen brier all winter long
showing its rough and prickly stem, and then
eventually produce a lovely rose,
and I have seen a ship sail straight and swift
over the sea through all its course, and then
about to enter in the harbor, sink.
[tr. Musa (1984)]

And let not people be too sure to judge, like one who appraises the oats in the field before they are ripe:
for I have seen all the previous winter long the thornbush appear rigid and and fierce, but later bear the rose upon its tip,
and I have seen a ship run straight and swift across the sea for all in its course, only to perish at last when entering the port.
[tr. Durling (2011)]

Do not let people be too secure in their judgements, like those who count the ears of corn in the field before the crop ripens, since I have seen, all winter long, the thorn display itself, sharp and forbidding, and then on its summit bear the rose; and before now I have seen a ship run straight and sure over the sea for her entire course, and sink in the end, entering the harbour mouth.
[tr. Kline (2002)]

And then again, don't let folk be too sure
in passing judgement as do those who price
the harvest in the field before it's ripe.
For I have seen, at first, all winter through
a thorn bush shows itself as stark and fierce,
which after bears a rose upon its height.
And I have seen a keel, steered swift and well,
speed over oceans all its voyage through,
then perish at the entrance to the dock.
[tr. Kirkpatrick (2007)]

Let the people, then, not be too certain
in their judgments, like those that harvest in their minds
corn still in the field before it ripens.
For I have seen the briar first look dry and thorny
right through all the winter's cold,
then later wear the bloom of roses at its tip,
and once I saw a ship, which had sailed straight
and swift upon the sea through all its voyage,
sinking at the end as it made its way to port.
[tr. Hollander/Hollander (2007)]

But ordinary people, too, must guard
Their judgment, not like those who count up ears
Of corn before the field is ripe. For I
Have seen, all winter through, bushes of thorn
Covered with small but savage knives, hard
And fierce, but now comes summer, and they they're roses
All over. And I have seen a ship sail far,
Straight and swift, and on course, but once in the harbor
Down she goes, sinking like a stone.
[tr. Raffel (2010)]

 
Added on 26-Aug-24 | Last updated 26-Aug-24
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The tendency of the casual mind is to pick out or stumble upon a sample which supports or defies its prejudices, and then to make it the representative of a whole class.

Walter Lippmann (1889-1974) American journalist and author
Public Opinion, ch. 10 “The Detection of Stereotypes,” sec. 9 (1922)
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Added on 2-Mar-22 | Last updated 2-Mar-22
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Intelligence recognizes what has happened. Genius recognizes what will happen.

John Ciardi (1916-1986) American poet, writer, critic
(Attributed)
 
Added on 10-Jun-20 | Last updated 10-Jun-20
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We know nothing of what will happen in future, but by the analogy of experience.

Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865) American lawyer, politician, US President (1861-65)
Speech on the Sub-Treasury (26 Dec 1839)
 
Added on 24-Apr-15 | Last updated 24-Apr-15
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And whereas sense and memory are but knowledge of fact, which is a thing past and irrevocable, science is the knowledge of consequences, and dependence of one fact upon another; by which, out of that we can presently do, we know how to do something else when we will, or the like, another time: because when we see how anything comes about, upon what causes, and by what manner; when the like causes come into our power, we see how to make it produce the like effects.

Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679) English philosopher
Leviathan, Part 1, ch. 5 (1651)
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Added on 8-Jan-14 | Last updated 6-Nov-20
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Power-worship blurs political judgment because it leads almost unavoidably to the belief that present trends will continue. Whoever is winning at the moment will always seem invincible.

George Orwell (1903-1950) English writer [pseud. of Eric Arthur Blair]
“James Burnham and the Managerial Revolution” (May 1946)
 
Added on 24-Sep-12 | Last updated 24-Jan-17
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The best Qualification of a Prophet is to have a good Memory.

George Savile, Marquis of Halifax (1633-1695) English politician and essayist
“Experience,” Political, Moral, and Miscellaneous Reflections (1750)
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Added on 17-Apr-12 | Last updated 30-Jan-20
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There is no surer way to misread any document than to read it literally; in every interpretation we must pass between Scylla and Charybdis; and I certainly do not wish to add to the barrels of ink that have been spent in logging the route. As nearly as we can, we must put ourselves in the place of those who uttered the words, and try to divine how they would have dealt with the unforeseen situation; and, although their words are by far the most decisive evidence of what they would have done, they are by no means final.

Learned Hand (1872-1961) American jurist
Guiseppi v. Walling, 144 F.2d 608, 624 (2d Cir. 1944) [concurring]
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Added on 29-Aug-07 | Last updated 25-Jan-22
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