“Lucky we know the forest so well, or we might get lost,” said Rabbit half an hour later, and he gave the careless laugh which you give when you know the Forest so well that you can’t get lost.
A. A. Milne (1882-1956) English poet and playwright [Alan Alexander Milne]
House at Pooh Corner, ch. 7 “Tigger Is Unbounced” (1928)
(Source)
Quotations about:
overconfidence
Note not all quotations have been tagged, so Search may find additional quotes on this topic.
The time tew be karefullest iz when we hav a hand full ov trumps.
[The time to be carefullest is when we have a hand full of trumps.]
Josh Billings (1818-1885) American humorist, aphorist [pseud. of Henry Wheeler Shaw]
Josh Billings’ Farmer’s Allminax, 1870-06 (1870 ed.)
(Source)
Repeated in Everybody's Friend, Or; Josh Billing's Encyclopedia and Proverbial Philosophy of Wit and Humor, ch. 156 "Affurisms: Embers on the Harth" (1874).
I think nobody should be certain of anything. If you’re certain, you’re certainly wrong, because nothing deserves certainty, and so one ought always to hold all one’s beliefs with a certain element of doubt and one ought to be able to act vigorously in spite of the doubt.
Bertrand Russell (1872-1970) English mathematician and philosopher
Interview by Woodrow Wyatt, BBC TV (1959)
(Source)
Collected in Bertrand Russell's BBC Interviews (1959) [UK] and Bertrand Russell Speaks His Mind (1960) [US]. Reprinted (abridged) in The Humanist (1982-11/12), and in Russell Society News, #37 (1983-02).
The conservatives nearly always tolerate the demagogue while he is destroying liberals. The conservatives may even know that their turn will come next, but they usually take this calculated risk. “Let him knock their heads together,” they say, “we’ll take care of him in good time.” […] But it never works out the way the conservatives would like to have it, especially if the demagogue knows how to consolidate his position before he finally goes after his early “allies.”
Harry Golden (1902-1981) Austrian-American writer and newspaper publisher [b. Herschel Goldhirsch]
“The Death of Senator McCarthy,” Carolina Israelite (5 May 1957)
(Source)
Reprinted in Only in America (1958).
Eight years involved with the nuclear industry have taught me that when nothing can possible go wrong and every avenue has been covered, then is the time to buy a house on the next continent.
Ability hits the mark where presumption overshoots and diffidence falls short.
John Henry Newman (1801-1890) English prelate, Catholic Cardinal, theologian
(Attributed)
Also attributed to Golda Meir.
Approach the easy as though it were difficult, and the difficult as though it were easy; the first, lest overconfidence make you careless, and the second, lest faint-heartedness make you afraid.
[Lo fácil se ha de emprender como dificultoso, y lo dificultoso como fácil. Allí porque la confianza no descuide, aquí porque la desconfianza no desmaye.]
Baltasar Gracián y Morales (1601-1658) Spanish Jesuit priest, writer, philosopher
The Art of Worldly Wisdom [Oráculo Manual y Arte de Prudencia], § 204 (1647) [tr. Fischer (1937)]
(Source)
(Source (Spanish)). Alternate translations:What is easie ought to be set about, as if it were difficult; and what is difficult as if it were easie. The one for fear of slackening through too much confidence; and the other for fear of losing courage through too much apprehensiveness.
[Flesher ed. (1685)]Attempt easy tasks as if they were difficult, and difficult as if they were easy. In the one case that confidence may not fall asleep, in the other that it may not be dismayed.
[tr. Jacobs (1892)]Undertake the easy as though it were difficult, and the difficult as though it were easy, so as not to grow overconfident or discouraged.
[tr. Maurer (1992)]
What this country needs is a short, victorious war to stem the tide of revolution.
Vyacheslav von Pléhve (1846-1904) Russian Tsarist security director, Interior Minister [Vyacheslav Konstantinovich von Plehve, or Pleve; Вячесла́в Константи́нович фон Пле́ве]
Comment (1903) [tr. Walder (1974)]
(Source)
Regarding the impending Russo-Japanese War (1904-05). Possibly apocryphal; the comment is quoted in the memoirs of Count Sergei Witte, an opponent of Plehve, several years later (and well after Plehve's 1904 assassination). Witte recounted it as a retort by Plehve to General Alexey Nikolayevich Kuropatkin, who accused Plehve of supporting the conflict for adventurist/expansionist reasons.
Russia, though considered much stronger than Japan militarily, ended up losing the war, destabilizing the government and ironically leading to revolutions in 1905 and 1917.
See Churchill (1930).
Alternate translations:
- "We need a little victorious war to stem the tide of revolution." [tr. Yarmolinsky (1921)]
- "We need a little, victorious war to stem the revolution." [tr. Harcave (1990)]
- "To contain the revolution, we need a short victorious war." [tr Hodson (2017)]
The belief in the possibility of a short decisive war appears to be one of the most ancient and dangerous of human illusions.
Robert Wilson Lynd (1879–1949) Irish writer, literary essayist, journalist, nationalist (Robiard Ó Flionn; pseud. "Y. Y.")
Searchlights and Nightingales (1939)
(Source)
Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.
